new week 4 new movies...

[HuskerFan1]

i played 2 as soon as they hit the board...

over DTH 19 -108 (bad line un-79now) dont know a lot about this one but RS tracking has it over 20 the stock price is trading around 21...this might be a cover later in the week not sure...just early play

over TDPD 10M -108...i like this one...not a ton of theatres but this clown has a following...movie looks dumb as shit...which means its probably a lock for over 10M....similar to last weeks prison...i feel good about this one RS tracking at 15 (makes sense to me) stock trading at 11M opening...

both were 1unit plays noway in hell am i giving back the profits of last week...unless something concrete comes along....i doubt that will happen this week...

fwiw, i think the early money is on the UNDERs is bc its 5new movies and you have the 2 strong holdovers from last week...so people are probably thinking this week might be a copycat of a few weeks ago when the unders swept the board...its 5day total this week not 3 though....

glta

 

[Labeeb]

If you liked the price of -108 on the over on DTH, wouldn't you want another piece at the current +157? Maybe not a full unit, but at least something in the name of value?

I put my plays in another thread just a minute later than you...

 

[HuskerFan1]

no im not gonna add to it bc i really dont know much about the movie...i just wrote down the tracking and the theatre count estimates and stock price and judged on what they threw up...

i like your play on under TF7.5 i shoulda hit that...i fu-ked up on that...

 

[HPark1]

ok some different opinions here.

Deck the Halls looks like a complete bomb. I can't imagine more than 6k per theatre from this mess. I'll only back off if the theatre count is a few hundred more then the 3000 estimate.

I think The Fountain can do well but its going to be overlooked with Deja and Royale. I'll wait for the number to drop before I do anything.

Deja looks a million or two too high but I don't have a good grasp of Denzel's popularity. Tenacious also looks like a under but the number is a bit lower then I anticipated, pass.

 

[HuskerFan1]

i still think TDPD is the best bet on the board right now...i thought nacho libre was the worst movie ever (judging by the trailors) and it did well....dont ask me why...this guys following likes him in these retarded films...i wont fade him until he bombs out...if he was in a different role like ferrel was in STF then i might have stayed away (like i did with stf and it went under ironically enough) but this movie looks just as stupid as NL....

which means OVER lol....

thats what its all about anyways...its not everyweek we agree atb...

gl guys...

 

[Labeeb]

I should have hit The Fountain again before it hit -210 now. Slow moving on it with all of the others that came out.

Denzel is a draw, but I think the demo that could go to that movie could be split between a couple of choices this weekend.

I agree that Jack Black had got a ridiculous following, but again I think his demo could skew over a couple of movies.

One question for you guys...do you do any calculations on your own when coming up with your plays? If so, I'm curious as to what you use for an average ticket cost and average theatre size. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

 

[Labeeb]

Damn, Foutain U7.5 -256.

 

[HuskerFan1]

this is about as much info your gonna get as far as trying to generalize how the new releases are stacking up against each other and the previous holdovers...i think it would be very difficult to try to estimate general theatre size etc...i just wanna know the basics...which films are in the biggest rooms and how many screens they are being shown on...

movies are fun to bet on and they are very profitable but im still learning....to this day i still cant comprehend how POC2 pulled in 55M in its opening day...when you look at this weeks movies POC2 did 15M more than those films in 1 day compared to its 3days...i also have learned to not just look at a film and say well 3500 theatres = solid gross etc...borat was an eye opener on the flip side...when you see 800 theatres and say well it cant do that much etc...like i said i still am learning but it sure beats trying to bet football games thats for sure....

MTC Screen Order (there is an advisory that projections are very tough and liable to be wrong)

DEJA
HAPPY
CASINO
DECK
DEJA
CASINO
HPY
TENCD
BORAT
FOUNT
BOBBY

 

[HPark1]

Well looks like Olympic's out of the movie game. Down to 50 buck limitshno:
Emailed them and its a permanent move.

Back to this week, fwiw here's RS tracking. MTC should have something today as well.

5 day est
Deja Vu 29m
Deck The Halls 21 m
Tenacious D 15m
Fountain 8m
Bobby 5m


Had no idea Tenacious D was Jack Black's "band" who is actually on tour at the moment. Anybody know how big his band is? Do they actually sell out shows? He's obviously getting some nice publicity from his tour.

 

[HuskerFan1]

the pick of destiny is going OVER 10M (its10.5 now at pinny)...i just seem the commerical on tv...again it doesnt interest me but its right up the ally of his fanbase...

thats my LOCK O THE WEEK (just for shits n giggles)

i cant believe greek cut the limits to 50bucks...thats laughable...it should at least be a hondo....

 

[HuskerFan1]

MTC Tracking (These numbers are just 3 day weekend)

Happy Feet: 33.8
Casino Royale: 26.3
Deja Vu: 24.7
Deck The Halls: 17.9
Tenacious D: 12.8
Fountain: 6.8
Bobby: 4.3


i like those #s for DTH and TD...i might bet some more OVER TD at 10.5....

 

[HuskerFan1]

ya i rebet pick of destiny over 10.5 at -60...i think its only go higher once people catch wind of the mtc #s...i think it could hit 11 or 11.5 at pinny before its said n done...

i see they also lowered dth to 18m...my gut says that line rises some....maybe to the point where the juice equates to 19m -108 where i orginally bet it at...

i havent played it but i think DV could be the movie forgotten this weekend...with CR wom...this might be the one that doest live up to expectations....gun to head...id bet it under...nothing official yet though...

we will see how it turns out..

im 2units over TDPOD 10 and 10.5M
1unit over DTH 19m -108

 

[HuskerFan1]

theatre counts are in...my 2 got nice bumps which i like and was hoping for...esp for pick of destiny bc it wasnt a heavy count to begin with so the extra 119 is nice...

EXHIBITOR RELATIONS CO. - PRINT COUNT SUMMARY

WEEKEND #48 - THANKSGIVING FRAME BEGINNING WED. 11/22/2006
No. OPENERS DISTRIBUTOR RELEASE DATE THIS WEEK'S THEATRES

1 HISTORY BOYS, THE FOX SEARCHLIGHT Tue, 11/21/06 6 THEATRES (WED) 7 THEATRES (FRIDAY)/LTD.

2 DÉJÀ VU BUENA VISTA Wed, 11/22/06 3108 THEATRES/WIDE

3 DECK THE HALLS FOX Wed, 11/22/06 3023 THEATRES (WED) 3205 THEATRES (FRIDAY) WIDE

4 TENACIOUS D IN : THE PICK OF DESTINY NEW LINE Wed, 11/22/06 1919 THEATRES/WIDE

5 FOUNTAIN, THE WARNER BROS. Wed, 11/22/06 1472 THEATRES/WIDE

 

[HuskerFan1]

hollywood reporter...they think like i was on TDPOD

A bountiful Thanksgiving spreadBy Nicole Sperling

Nov 22, 2006

With four wide releases bowing this Thanksgiving holiday frame and three strong holdovers looking for business, the North American boxoffice is going to be extremely crowded, and it remains to be seen whether that's a good thing.

Buena Vista Pictures is looking for action with its Tony Scott-directed "Deja Vu," while New Line Cinema is enthusiastic about "Tenacious D: The Pick of Destiny." 20th Century Fox will unveil "Deck the Halls," while Warner Bros. Pictures bows Darren Aronofsky's "The Fountain." The question is: Will audiences be so fatigued by the glut of product -- and movie advertising -- that they stay away from the theaters altogether?

Warners is likely to win the frame with the second week of "Happy Feet." The animated penguin movie that has scored with critics and audiences will dominate this family-friendly frame, leaving the new releases scrambling against the strong holdovers of Sony Pictures' Bond hit "Casino Royale" and Fox's comedic romp "Borat."

"Casino" and "Deja Vu" are likely to battle for second place; both are targeting a primarily male audience, which will make things interesting.

"Deja Vu" stars Denzel Washington as an ATF agent who is introduced to a secret government agency in an effort to prevent the crime he's working on from ever happening. The film co-stars Val Kilmer and Jim Caviezel and scored well among exhibition execs at the recent ShowEast convention. The PG-13 film is likely to bow in the $30 million range for the five-day period.

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Fox opens Regency Enterprises' "Deck the Halls" today. Starring Matthew Broderick and Danny DeVito, the film plays on a traditional Christmas movie theme: competition for the most absurdly decorated house. Directed by John Whitesell ("Big Momma's House 2"), the PG film will play in 3,205 theaters. Kristin Davis and Kristin Chenoweth co-star in the comedy, which could get into the $20 million range for the five days.

"Pick of Destiny" opens today in 1,919 theaters. The relatively inexpensive movie is targeting die-hard fans of actor-comedian Jack Black's cult rock band Tenacious D. The R-rated film tells the story of two rockers who try to become the world's greatest band and are helped by a magical guitar pick housed in a rock 'n' roll museum 300 miles away. Directed by Liam Lynch ("Sarah Silverman: Jesus Is Magic"), the film is likely to bow in the mid-teen-million range for the five-day period, with hopes that it could get into the low 20s.

"Fountain," also from Regency, is Aronofsky's follow-up to the well-received "Requiem for a Dream." The PG-13 film experienced numerous starts and stops until it received a scaled-down budget and landed Hugh Jackman and Aronofsky's fiancee, Rachel Weisz, to appear in the lead roles. "Fountain" time-travels through a thousand years as a 16th century conquistador tries to save his one true love. The film, which has earned mixed early reviews, bows in 1,472 theaters.

 

[HPark1]

Only real play this week is over 6.5 for Fountain. Despite the critics poor reviews (was booed at Venice film festival!) it appears the general public doesn't mind this psychedelic love tail. IMDB users rate it 7.5 with over 1000 votes. Also Jackman and Weisz have made the rounds on several shows promoting. It has appeared as of this morning 4th on mf only behind Deja and last week's big two.

I'm sure the many pot heads will enjoy this one and spread good WOM:thumbsup:

 

[HuskerFan1]

this is a weird week and will be interesting to see how these end up...every estimate ive seen for tencd is over 11m...and most ive seen for dth is for 19-21M...someone is betting these under like they know something...like i said earlier maybe they are looking at the glut of new releases and strong holdovers and thinking unders atb...but the lines are for 5days not 3 which is also why its a little different this week

for the life of me i dont know why tencd isnt -200+ right now...

we will see how it plays out but tencd looks like stealing to me (note i didnt go crazy on it bc of the lack of real concrete info) thus i never go too heavy...i even think my dth over 19 has a shot even though id much rather have the 17.5 currently available but i dont wanna bet anymore on it...stick with the 19 and hope the drop doesnt screw me...its got a horrible 13% fresh rating on RT which is higher than Xmas w/ the kranks (4%) and your mine and ours 5%) and those did 31 and 24M....depending on just how much HF takes away from DTH will determine if this one can break 20M or not...

i just stuck with my 2 plays

over tencd 2units 10.5 and 10
over dth 1 unit 19

 

[3DGlasses]

deck the halls

Box Office Report has DECK THE HALLS making 23 million for the 5 day.

Intertops' line still up, 23.5 million or more +200.

 

[HPark1]

Box Office Report has DECK THE HALLS making 23 million for the 5 day.

Intertops' line still up, 23.5 million or more +200.

I can't see Deck going past 20.

I don't think that sites predictions are anything special. Just one person's guess like the rest of us. Bobby at 10.5 is also another overinflated prediction there imo. In fact all the numbers seem high there.

 

[HuskerFan1]

i agree the prediction sites are worthless i just thought it was strange how they felt the same way i did about the 2 i bet (even THR)...the one who was lower (much lower) was BOProphets...they had DTH coming in very light along with TENCD....

fwiw ida never bet that DTH over 23.5 at the price...im worried about my 19...i think 17.5 is reachable is it doesnt get smashed by HF which is very well might...

dying to see how TENCD does overall...really thought that line was a few too million low....

 

[Labeeb]

Husker, you hit on exactly what I was thinking with TPOD. Strong holdovers from last week, including Borat which is still drawing could spell under for it. Will be interesting to see what happens with it. Tried to play contrarian to the normal Jack Black opening.